In January and April this year, the HKMA has relaxed monetary policy twice in a row, lowering the slope of the SGD exchange rate policy range, allowing the SGD to slow down its appreciation.
The HKMA issued a survey to 25 economists who were concerned about my country's economy on May 22, and received a total of 20 replies. The last time the HKMA released its economist survey report was in March this year.
In terms of the labor market, by the end of this year, the unemployment rate is expected to be 2.2%, slightly higher than the previous forecast of 2%.
Manufacturing industry is expected to shrink slightly throughout the yearEconomists estimate that the overall inflation rate for the whole year is 0.9%, which is also far lower than the previous forecast of 1.7%; the core inflation forecast is revised down from 1.5% to 0.8%.
In April this year, the Ministry of Trade and Industry lowered my country's annual economic growth forecast from 1% to 3% to zero to 2%.
More than half of the economists interviewed (57.9%) predict that the HKMA will further relax monetary policy in July and adjust the slope of the SGD nominal effective exchange rate policy range to zero appreciation.
Economists believe that geopolitical tensions, including escalating trade tensions, are the main downward risks affecting Singapore's economic growth. The interviewed economists also listed external economic slowdowns and tightening financial conditions as potential risks.
According to the latest economist survey report released by the Monetary Authority of Singapore on Wednesday (June 18), economists predict that my country's overall inflation rate in the second quarter will be 0.9% and the core inflation rate will be 0.7%.
Economists have also lowered their overall inflation and core inflation forecasts for the whole year again.
In this survey, economists also predicted that my country's manufacturing industry will shrink by 0.3% throughout the year, which is expected to be the only area to fall into shrinkage. Others include finance and insurance, construction, wholesale and retail trade, and accommodation and catering services, which slowed.
88% of the economists surveyed believe that trade tensions eased more than expected, which is most likely to drive economic growth to accelerate. They also pointed out that better-than-expected growth prospects in external economies (including China and the United States) and the continued improvement in the technology industry are also major positive factors.
Economists predict that Singapore's economy will grow by 3% in the second quarter of this year, while the full-year growth forecast will be lowered from 2.6% to 1.7%.