In the forum "AI Craze Detonates the New Technology Landscape in 2026", an annual event co-organized by TrendForce and Qunyi Jinding Securities, Qiao An, manager of TrendForce's research department, pointed out that the demand for advanced processes driven by AI is pushing the global foundry industry into an extreme two-sided structure: advanced processes are fully loaded and prices are rising, while mature processes are facing pressure to expand production and lower prices.
AI has become the biggest promoter, and 3nm has entered long-term full loadThe development of wafer foundry has become one of the important focuses of this forum. TrendForce predicts that the main growth of wafer foundry in 2026 will focus on advanced processes. Qiao An pointed out that processes such as 3nm and 5nm have benefited from the demand for HPC and AI servers, making advanced processes the main driving force for the entire industry. Google TPU, NVIDIA Rubin, Meta and Microsoft's next-generation AI chips all use 3nm, making this node a core strategic resource for AI giant Evergrande.
TrendForce data shows that AI-purpose wafers will consume nearly 30% of 3nm production capacity in 2026, making them "full or even overloaded throughout the year." Even though 2nm will be gradually introduced from the second half of 2025 to early 2026, it will still be mainly used in high-end mobile phones and PC SoCs in the early stage. AI training chips will not immediately jump to newer nodes in the short term, making 3nm the most stable and most demanding process.
CSP accelerates the decentralized supply chain, and local manufacturing allows Intel to regain its profitabilityAs advanced manufacturing processes continue to be tight, global cloud service providers (CSPs) have begun to adjust their production strategies to reduce their reliance on a single supplier. Qiao An pointed out that a key change in 2026 is that CSPs begin to plan to incorporate Intel into the second source of advanced processes. Intel uses the 18A process with the local manufacturing advantages of the US and European factories, which is in line with the global policy direction of "reducing risks and improving supply chain resilience."
She pointed out that this is not because Intel technology has caught up with TSMC, but because geopolitics has increased its influence on production capacity allocation, making "manufacturing location" and "supply risk" key factors in whether it can obtain AI orders. CSP began to require the decentralization of production capacity, which for the first time transformed the competition for advanced processes from a "battle of technology" to a "battle for supply chain resilience."
The mature process has reached a stalemate, and the real supply wave of 28nm will break out in 2026In sharp contrast to the strength of advanced processes, the mature process market is facing the dual pressures of downward prices and increased supply. TrendForce pointed out that although demand for mature processes will rebound slightly in 2026 due to supply chain replenishment of inventory, the lack of a breakthrough point in consumer end applications, coupled with the dispersion of production capacity caused by geopolitics, has limited the overall growth momentum of mature processes.
China has expanded its mature process capacity on a large scale with policy subsidies in recent years, and has accelerated the progress of special processes for 40nm and 28nm platforms. In addition, some IDMs have authorized Chinese manufacturers for MCU, DDI, CIS and other platforms, so that the real 28nm supply wave will explode in 2026. By then, MCU, PMIC, CIS, driver IC and other applications that rely heavily on mature processes will face more intense price competition.
Geopolitics reshapes the supply chain, and the new battle for advanced packaging becomes more intenseCurrently, geopolitics is reshaping the global foundry landscape. The United States uses the CHIPS Act to promote advanced manufacturing in the United States, with TSMC, Samsung, and Intel all building factories there; China uses policy funds to promote the comprehensive expansion of mature processes; Japan and Europe target areas such as automotive electronics, industrial control, and advanced packaging to strengthen supply chain gaps.
Qiao An pointed out that as the demand for AI computing power continues to rise, the area of advanced packaging has increased significantly, and the market demand has extended from CoWoS to EMIB, CoWoP, CoPoS and other different routes, and the competitive relationship between wafer factories and packaging factories has become increasingly complex.
Currently, geopolitics is reshaping the global foundry landscape. The United States uses the CHIPS Act to promote the localization of advanced manufacturing processes, with TSMC, Samsung, and Intel all building factories there; China uses policy funds to promote the comprehensive expansion of mature manufacturing processes; Japan and Europe target areas such as automotive electronics, industrial control, and advanced packaging to strengthen supply chain gaps.
Qiao An believes that as the localization and structural adjustment of the supply chain accelerates, the production cost of advanced packaging will continue to increase. How to strike a balance between efficiency, yield and cost will become a key test for all manufacturers in the future.
2026 will be a watershed, and the bipolar pattern of wafer foundry will officially take shape.2026 will become the most important watershed for global wafer foundry: prices for advanced processes will rise and supply will be tight due to long-term constraints on AI; prices for mature processes will be revised downwards and competition will intensify due to China's production expansion and uneven demand.
Qiao An said, "In 2026, a bipolar pattern of foundry will be established: advanced dominance, mature stalemate." Driven by the dual promotion of AI and geopolitics, the global semiconductor supply chain will usher in a structural reorganization.